Vaguely interesting (June 24)

(1)  “Baumeister’s problem, I think, is … that he sees ‘p less than .05,’ statistical significance, publication, NPR, Ted Talk, Gladwell, Freakonomics, etc., as a win. Whereas, to me, all of that is a win if there’s really a discovery there, but it’s a loss if it’s just a tale spun out of noise.”

(2)  “For the first time in surveys dating to 1992, majorities in both parties express not just unfavorable but very unfavorable views of the other party. And today, sizable shares of both Democrats and Republicans say the other party stirs feelings of not just frustration, but fear and anger.”

(3)  “But here’s a simple lesson from the GOP primaries and from Brexit: Polling is proving a much better guide to political outcomes right now than recent history or established norms.”

(4)  It takes 270 electoral votes to be elected president. Right now, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has 247 as safe or likely Democratic and 190 as safe or likely Republican.

(5)  “Embracing white nativism in the 1990s turned the California GOP into a permanent minority. The same story may now be repeating itself nationally.”